Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Value Assessment
Home Win
1.89
45% pred
-8.3%
Draw
3.57
27% pred
-1.2%
Away Win
4.71
29% pred
+7.4%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.85
58%
MARGINAL
BTTS No
1.88
42%
Key Insights
Dead Rubber
Both teams safe in mid-table with nothing to play for - reduced intensity expected
Medium impactRotation Risk
Watford has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactRotation Risk
Derby County has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactBookmaker Split
Bookmakers disagree on home win: 1.33 (Betfair) to 2.15 (bwin) - 28.7% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
High impactBookmaker Split
Bookmakers disagree on away win: 3.21 (Sbo) to 9.00 (Betfair) - 20.0% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
High impactMatch Normality
5%
High risk match
Match Info
Kickoff
Sat, Feb 21 2026
·
15:00
Venue
Vicarage Road
(Watford)
Competition
Championship
·
33
Referee
David Webb
Coaches
Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Recent Form
Watford
2W 1D 2L
1.2 GF · 1 GA
W
H
Derby County
2-0
Derby County
2-0
L
H
Swansea City
0-2
Swansea City
0-2
D
H
Portsmouth
1-1
Portsmouth
1-1
L
H
Millwall
0-2
Millwall
0-2
W
H
Birmingham City
3-0
Birmingham City
3-0
2W 1D 2L
1.2 GF · 1 GA
W
H
Derby County
2-0
Derby County
2-0
L
H
Swansea City
0-2
Swansea City
0-2
D
H
Portsmouth
1-1
Portsmouth
1-1
L
H
Millwall
0-2
Millwall
0-2
W
H
Birmingham City
3-0
Birmingham City
3-0
0W 3D 2L
0.8 GF · 1.8 GA
D
A
Preston North End
2-2
Preston North End
2-2
L
A
Southampton
0-1
Southampton
0-1
D
A
Hull City
0-0
Hull City
0-0
D
A
Blackburn Rovers
1-1
Blackburn Rovers
1-1
L
A
Bristol City
1-5
Bristol City
1-5
1W 2D 2L
0.8 GF · 1 GA
W
H
Derby County
2-0
Derby County
2-0
D
A
Preston North End
2-2
Preston North End
2-2
L
A
Southampton
0-1
Southampton
0-1
D
A
Hull City
0-0
Hull City
0-0
L
H
Swansea City
0-2
Swansea City
0-2
Derby County
3W 0D 2L
1.8 GF · 1 GA
L
A
Watford
0-2
Watford
0-2
W
A
Bristol City
5-0
Bristol City
5-0
W
A
Charlton Athletic
2-1
Charlton Athletic
2-1
W
A
Preston North End
1-0
Preston North End
1-0
L
A
Leicester City
1-2
Leicester City
1-2
1W 1D 3L
1.2 GF · 1.6 GA
W
H
Swansea City
2-0
Swansea City
2-0
L
H
Ipswich Town
1-2
Ipswich Town
1-2
D
H
West Bromwich Albion
1-1
West Bromwich Albion
1-1
L
H
Leeds United
1-3
Leeds United
1-3
L
H
Wrexham
1-2
Wrexham
1-2
3W 0D 2L
1.8 GF · 1 GA
L
A
Watford
0-2
Watford
0-2
W
A
Bristol City
5-0
Bristol City
5-0
W
A
Charlton Athletic
2-1
Charlton Athletic
2-1
W
A
Preston North End
1-0
Preston North End
1-0
L
A
Leicester City
1-2
Leicester City
1-2
2W 1D 2L
1.8 GF · 1 GA
L
A
Watford
0-2
Watford
0-2
W
H
Swansea City
2-0
Swansea City
2-0
L
H
Ipswich Town
1-2
Ipswich Town
1-2
W
A
Bristol City
5-0
Bristol City
5-0
D
H
West Bromwich Albion
1-1
West Bromwich Albion
1-1
Sidelined Players
Watford
1 out
Rocco Vata
injury
Derby County
3 out
Sondre Langås
injury
Jacob Widell Zetterström
injury
Jaydon Banel
injury
Head-to-Head (Last 10)
Watford
6
60%
Draws
1
10%
Derby County
3
30%
Avg Goals
3.4
BTTS
70%
League Signals
Predictability
51%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.5
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
26%
BTTS
49%
Over 2.5
46%
Final Words
Watford have struggled recently, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches.
