Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Value Assessment
Home Win
1.35
46% pred
-27.6%
Draw
5.57
26% pred
+7.7%
VALUE
Away Win
7.47
28% pred
+14.4%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.53
54%
BTTS No
2.44
41%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Away Win
@
7.47
+14.4% edge
28% probability
Expected value: +1.08 units per bet
Confidence
Medium
74%
Key Insights
Relegation Zone
Villarreal in position 35 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop
High impactRelegation Zone
Ajax in position 34 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop
High impactMust Win
Villarreal in position 35 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation
High impactMust Win
Ajax in position 34 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation
High impactStreak Watch
Ajax unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) - solid defensive form
Medium impactAway Specialist
Ajax exceptional away form: 5 wins in last 8 away matches (62% win rate)
Medium impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 46.5% home win vs 74.1% market consensus - lower probability, 27.6% gap
High impactMatch Normality
65%
Significant concerns
Match Info
Kickoff
Tue, Jan 20 2026
·
20:00
Venue
Estadio de la Cerámica
(Villarreal)
Competition
Champions League
·
League Stage
, 7
Referee
N. Walsh
Coaches
Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Recent Form
Villarreal
3W 0D 2L
2 GF · 1.4 GA
W
H
Valencia
2-1
Valencia
2-1
W
H
Espanyol
4-1
Espanyol
4-1
L
H
Real Madrid
0-2
Real Madrid
0-2
L
H
Ajax
1-2
Ajax
1-2
W
H
Deportivo Alavés
3-1
Deportivo Alavés
3-1
3W 0D 2L
2 GF · 1.4 GA
W
H
Valencia
2-1
Valencia
2-1
W
H
Espanyol
4-1
Espanyol
4-1
L
H
Real Madrid
0-2
Real Madrid
0-2
L
H
Ajax
1-2
Ajax
1-2
W
H
Deportivo Alavés
3-1
Deportivo Alavés
3-1
1W 1D 3L
0.8 GF · 1.8 GA
W
A
Levante
1-0
Levante
1-0
L
A
Getafe
1-2
Getafe
1-2
D
A
Osasuna
2-2
Osasuna
2-2
L
A
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0-3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0-3
L
A
Real Betis
0-2
Real Betis
0-2
3W 1D 1L
2 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Valencia
2-1
Valencia
2-1
W
A
Levante
1-0
Levante
1-0
L
A
Getafe
1-2
Getafe
1-2
W
H
Espanyol
4-1
Espanyol
4-1
D
A
Osasuna
2-2
Osasuna
2-2
Ajax
2W 3D 0L
2 GF · 1.6 GA
D
A
AZ
1-1
AZ
1-1
D
A
Excelsior
2-2
Excelsior
2-2
W
A
Villarreal
2-1
Villarreal
2-1
W
A
Telstar
3-2
Telstar
3-2
D
A
NEC Nijmegen
2-2
NEC Nijmegen
2-2
2W 2D 1L
2 GF · 1.2 GA
D
H
NEC Nijmegen
1-1
NEC Nijmegen
1-1
W
H
Fortuna Sittard
4-1
Fortuna Sittard
4-1
L
H
Olympiacos F.C.
1-2
Olympiacos F.C.
1-2
W
H
FC Volendam
2-0
FC Volendam
2-0
D
H
Go Ahead Eagles
2-2
Go Ahead Eagles
2-2
2W 3D 0L
2 GF · 1.6 GA
D
A
AZ
1-1
AZ
1-1
D
A
Excelsior
2-2
Excelsior
2-2
W
A
Villarreal
2-1
Villarreal
2-1
W
A
Telstar
3-2
Telstar
3-2
D
A
NEC Nijmegen
2-2
NEC Nijmegen
2-2
1W 3D 1L
1.8 GF · 1.4 GA
D
H
NEC Nijmegen
1-1
NEC Nijmegen
1-1
W
H
Fortuna Sittard
4-1
Fortuna Sittard
4-1
D
A
AZ
1-1
AZ
1-1
D
A
Excelsior
2-2
Excelsior
2-2
L
H
Olympiacos F.C.
1-2
Olympiacos F.C.
1-2
Sidelined Players
Villarreal
6 out
Pau Cabanes
injury
Alfonso Pedraza
injury
Logan Costa
injury
Juan Foyth
injury
Raúl Albiol
suspension
+1 more
Ajax
4 out
Oleksandr Zinchenko
injury
Davy Klaassen
injury
Kasper Dolberg
injury
Vitezslav Jaros
injury
Head-to-Head (Last 1)
Villarreal
0
0%
Draws
0
0%
Ajax
1
100%
Avg Goals
3.0
BTTS
100%
League Signals
Predictability
56%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.0
HIGH
Draw Rate
20%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
57%
Final Words
Ajax have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5.
