Southampton vs Watford - Serie A Prediction & Analysis

Value Assessment

Home Win

1.98

47% pred

-3.6%

Draw

3.40

28% pred

-1.7%

Away Win

3.72

25% pred

-1.5%

BTTS Yes 1.71 38%

BTTS No 2.07 52% MARGINAL

Key Insights

Streak Watch

Watford without a win in 5 games (3 draws, 2 losses) - struggling for results

High impact

Top Scorer

Southampton has Adam Armstrong ranked #5 in league scoring (11 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 38.3% BTTS vs 58.5% market consensus - lower probability, 20.1% gap

Medium impact

Match Normality

80%

Minor irregularities detected

Match Info

Kickoff

Sat, Feb 7 2026 · 12:31

Venue

St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Competition

Championship · 31

Referee

Elliot Bell

Coaches

William Still

Southampton

Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.

Edward Still

Watford

In role since Feb 2026

Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.

Recent Form

Southampton

3W 1D 1L

1.2 GF · 0.8 GA

D H

Charlton Athletic 1-1

W H

Leicester City 2-1

W H Watford

Watford 1-0

W H

Sheffield United 1-0

L H

Hull City 1-2

3W 1D 1L

1.2 GF · 0.8 GA

D H

Charlton Athletic 1-1

W H

Leicester City 2-1

W H Watford

Watford 1-0

W H

Sheffield United 1-0

L H

Hull City 1-2

3W 1D 1L

2 GF · 2 GA

W A

Leicester City 4-3

W A

Stoke City 2-0

D A

Portsmouth 1-1

W A

Doncaster Rovers 3-2

L A

Middlesbrough 0-4

4W 1D 0L

2 GF · 1 GA

D H

Charlton Athletic 1-1

W H

Leicester City 2-1

W A

Leicester City 4-3

W H Watford

Watford 1-0

W A

Stoke City 2-0

Watford

0W 3D 2L

0.8 GF · 1.8 GA

D A

Preston North End 2-2

L A

Southampton 0-1

D A

Hull City 0-0

D A

Blackburn Rovers 1-1

L A

Bristol City 1-5

2W 1D 2L

1.2 GF · 1 GA

W H

Derby County 2-0

L H

Swansea City 0-2

D H

Portsmouth 1-1

L H

Millwall 0-2

W H

Birmingham City 3-0

0W 3D 2L

0.8 GF · 1.8 GA

D A

Preston North End 2-2

L A

Southampton 0-1

D A

Hull City 0-0

D A

Blackburn Rovers 1-1

L A

Bristol City 1-5

1W 2D 2L

0.8 GF · 1 GA

W H

Derby County 2-0

D A

Preston North End 2-2

L A

Southampton 0-1

D A

Hull City 0-0

L H

Swansea City 0-2

Sidelined Players

Southampton 6 out

Kamaldeen Sulemana

injury

Jack Stephens

injury

Mads Roerslev

injury

Will Smallbone

injury

Alex McCarthy

injury

+1 more

Watford 1 out

Rocco Vata

injury

Head-to-Head

No previous meetings found

League Signals

Predictability

51%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+9%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

2.5

MEDIUM

Draw Rate

26%

BTTS

49%

Over 2.5

46%

Final Words

Southampton enter this match in excellent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. Watford have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5.