Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Value Assessment

Home Win
1.26
66% pred
-13.4%
Draw
6.39
20% pred
+4.6%
MARGINAL
Away Win
9.72
14% pred
+3.4%
MARGINAL
BTTS Yes 1.71 39%
BTTS No 2.08 51% MARGINAL

Key Insights

Title Race

Real Madrid

Real Madrid in position 2, 1 point behind leader - competing for title

High impact

Must Win

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano in position 17 with poor recent form (20% points) - must-win situation

High impact

Leaky Defense

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Real Madrid

Real Madrid has Kylian Mbappé ranked #1 in league scoring (22 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Match Normality

95%

Normal match expected

Match Info

Kickoff
Sun, Feb 1 2026 · 13:00
Venue
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)
Competition
La Liga · 22
Referee
Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Coaches

Álvaro Arbeloa Coca

Álvaro Arbeloa Coca

Real Madrid Real Madrid

In role since Jan 2026

Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.

Iñigo Pérez

Iñigo Pérez

Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano

In role since Feb 2024

Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.

Recent Form

Real Madrid Real Madrid
5W 0D 0L
3.8 GF · 0.8 GA
W H Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 4-1
W H Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1
W H Monaco Monaco 6-1
W H Levante Levante 2-0
W H Real Betis Real Betis 5-1
5W 0D 0L
3.8 GF · 0.8 GA
W H Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 4-1
W H Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1
W H Monaco Monaco 6-1
W H Levante Levante 2-0
W H Real Betis Real Betis 5-1
3W 0D 2L
1.6 GF · 1.2 GA
L A Osasuna Osasuna 1-2
W A Benfica Benfica 1-0
W A Valencia Valencia 2-0
L A Benfica Benfica 2-4
W A Villarreal Villarreal 2-0
4W 0D 1L
2 GF · 0.8 GA
L A Osasuna Osasuna 1-2
W A Benfica Benfica 1-0
W H Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 4-1
W A Valencia Valencia 2-0
W H Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
1W 1D 3L
1 GF · 1.8 GA
D A Real Betis Real Betis 1-1
L A Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-2
L A Celta de Vigo Celta de Vigo 0-3
L A Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés 0-2
W A Granada Granada 3-1
3W 1D 1L
2 GF · 1 GA
W H Atlético Madrid Atlético Madrid 3-0
L H Osasuna Osasuna 1-3
W H Mallorca Mallorca 2-1
D H Getafe Getafe 1-1
W H Drita Drita 3-0
1W 1D 3L
1 GF · 1.8 GA
D A Real Betis Real Betis 1-1
L A Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-2
L A Celta de Vigo Celta de Vigo 0-3
L A Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés 0-2
W A Granada Granada 3-1
1W 1D 3L
1.2 GF · 1.8 GA
D A Real Betis Real Betis 1-1
W H Atlético Madrid Atlético Madrid 3-0
L A Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-2
L H Osasuna Osasuna 1-3
L A Celta de Vigo Celta de Vigo 0-3

Sidelined Players

Real Madrid Real Madrid 6 out
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham
injury
Dani Ceballos
Dani Ceballos
injury
Éder Militão 
Éder Militão 
injury
Rodrygo
Rodrygo
injury
Rodrygo
Rodrygo
suspended

+1 more

Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1 out
Joni Montiel
Joni Montiel
injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Real Madrid
5
50%
Draws
4
40%
Rayo Vallecano
1
10%
Avg Goals
2.6
BTTS
70%

League Signals

Predictability
50%
LOW
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.6
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
27%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
46%

Final Words

Real Madrid enter this match in excellent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. Rayo Vallecano have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5. Historically, Real Madrid have dominated this fixture.