Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Value Assessment
Home Win
1.71
42% pred
-16.4%
Draw
5.62
25% pred
+6.7%
VALUE
Away Win
9.91
33% pred
+23.3%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.45
66%
BTTS No
2.67
34%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Away Win
@
9.91
+23.3% edge
33% probability
Expected value: +2.31 units per bet
Confidence
Low
56%
Key Insights
European Race
RB Leipzig in position 5 - competing for Europa League qualification
High impactRotation Risk
Borussia Dortmund has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactStreak Watch
Borussia Dortmund unbeaten in 5 games (4 wins, 1 draws) - solid defensive form
Medium impactHigh Scoring
RB Leipzig involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5
Medium impactBTTS Tendency
RB Leipzig matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes
Medium impactTop Scorer
RB Leipzig has Christoph Baumgartner ranked #6 in league scoring (10 goals) - strong attacking threat
Medium impactTop Scorer
Borussia Dortmund has Serhou Guirassy ranked #4 in league scoring (11 goals) - strong attacking threat
Medium impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 33.4% away win vs 10.1% market consensus - higher probability, 23.3% gap
Medium impactBookmaker Split
Bookmakers disagree on home win: 1.04 (HKJC) to 2.05 (bwin) - 47.4% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
High impactBookmaker Split
Bookmakers disagree on draw: 3.60 (WilliamHill) to 11.50 (MelBet) - 19.1% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
Medium impactBookmaker Split
Bookmakers disagree on away win: 3.10 (bwin) to 26.00 (Betfair) - 28.4% probability spread indicates market uncertainty
High impactMatch Normality
40%
High risk match
Match Info
Kickoff
Sat, Feb 21 2026
·
17:30
Venue
Red Bull Arena
(Leipzig)
Competition
Bundesliga
·
23
Referee
Benjamin Brand
Coaches
Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Recent Form
RB Leipzig
1W 2D 2L
1.6 GF · 2.2 GA
D
H
Borussia Dortmund
2-2
Borussia Dortmund
2-2
D
H
VfL Wolfsburg
2-2
VfL Wolfsburg
2-2
L
H
FSV Mainz 05
1-2
FSV Mainz 05
1-2
L
H
FC Bayern München
1-5
FC Bayern München
1-5
W
H
SC Freiburg
2-0
SC Freiburg
2-0
1W 2D 2L
1.6 GF · 2.2 GA
D
H
Borussia Dortmund
2-2
Borussia Dortmund
2-2
D
H
VfL Wolfsburg
2-2
VfL Wolfsburg
2-2
L
H
FSV Mainz 05
1-2
FSV Mainz 05
1-2
L
H
FC Bayern München
1-5
FC Bayern München
1-5
W
H
SC Freiburg
2-0
SC Freiburg
2-0
2W 2D 1L
1.4 GF · 1 GA
W
A
FC Köln
2-1
FC Köln
2-1
D
A
St. Pauli
1-1
St. Pauli
1-1
W
A
Heidenheim
3-0
Heidenheim
3-0
L
A
FC Union Berlin
1-3
FC Union Berlin
1-3
D
A
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0-0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0-0
1W 3D 1L
1.6 GF · 1.6 GA
D
H
Borussia Dortmund
2-2
Borussia Dortmund
2-2
D
H
VfL Wolfsburg
2-2
VfL Wolfsburg
2-2
W
A
FC Köln
2-1
FC Köln
2-1
L
H
FSV Mainz 05
1-2
FSV Mainz 05
1-2
D
A
St. Pauli
1-1
St. Pauli
1-1
Borussia Dortmund
2W 2D 1L
2 GF · 1.6 GA
D
A
RB Leipzig
2-2
RB Leipzig
2-2
W
A
VfL Wolfsburg
2-1
VfL Wolfsburg
2-1
W
A
FC Union Berlin
3-0
FC Union Berlin
3-0
L
A
Tottenham Hotspur
0-2
Tottenham Hotspur
0-2
D
A
Eintracht Frankfurt
3-3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3-3
4W 0D 1L
2.4 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Atalanta
2-0
Atalanta
2-0
W
H
FSV Mainz 05
4-0
FSV Mainz 05
4-0
W
H
Heidenheim
3-2
Heidenheim
3-2
L
H
Inter
0-2
Inter
0-2
W
H
St. Pauli
3-2
St. Pauli
3-2
2W 2D 1L
2 GF · 1.6 GA
D
A
RB Leipzig
2-2
RB Leipzig
2-2
W
A
VfL Wolfsburg
2-1
VfL Wolfsburg
2-1
W
A
FC Union Berlin
3-0
FC Union Berlin
3-0
L
A
Tottenham Hotspur
0-2
Tottenham Hotspur
0-2
D
A
Eintracht Frankfurt
3-3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3-3
4W 1D 0L
2.6 GF · 1 GA
D
A
RB Leipzig
2-2
RB Leipzig
2-2
W
H
Atalanta
2-0
Atalanta
2-0
W
H
FSV Mainz 05
4-0
FSV Mainz 05
4-0
W
A
VfL Wolfsburg
2-1
VfL Wolfsburg
2-1
W
H
Heidenheim
3-2
Heidenheim
3-2
Sidelined Players
RB Leipzig
8 out
Kevin Kampl
injury
Assan Ouédraogo
injury
Péter Gulácsi
injury
Xaver Schlager
injury
Viggo Gebel
injury
+3 more
Borussia Dortmund
5 out
Emre Can
injury
Filippo Mane
injury
Nico Schlotterbeck
injury
Niklas Süle
injury
Emre Can
injury
Head-to-Head (Last 10)
RB Leipzig
6
60%
Draws
2
20%
Borussia Dortmund
2
20%
Avg Goals
3.5
BTTS
80%
League Signals
Predictability
58%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.1
HIGH
Draw Rate
25%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
60%
Final Words
RB Leipzig host Borussia Dortmund in a Bundesliga clash. Dortmund sit second, six points behind the leader, with Champions League qualification in focus. Leipzig lie fifth, aiming for European qualification.
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig arrive with a five-match sequence: D-W-L-D-W, including 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. In that run they have scored 9 and conceded 6. They average 1.6 points per match.
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund's away form over the last five matches is W-W-W-W-L, with 4 wins and 1 loss. They have scored 11 and conceded 5, giving 2.4 points per game. There is no record of prior head-to-head matches for this fixture.
