Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Value Assessment
Home Win
1.11
78% pred
-12.0%
Draw
8.96
16% pred
+5.3%
VALUE
Away Win
19.31
5% pred
+0.3%
BTTS Yes
2.54
37%
BTTS No
1.47
63%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Draw
@
8.96
+5.3% edge
16% probability
Expected value: +0.47 units per bet
Confidence
Low
56%
Key Insights
Title Race
Porto leading the table - high motivation to maintain position
High impactStreak Watch
Rio Ave on 5-game losing streak - crisis form
High impactHome Fortress
Porto unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (7 wins, 1 draws) - strong home advantage
Medium impactHigh Scoring
Rio Ave involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5
Medium impactLeaky Defense
Rio Ave has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals
Medium impactTop Scorer
Porto has Samu Aghehowa ranked #4 in league scoring (13 goals) - strong attacking threat
Medium impactTop Scorer
Rio Ave has Clayton ranked #9 in league scoring (10 goals) - strong attacking threat
Medium impactMatch Normality
90%
Normal match expected
Match Info
Kickoff
Sun, Feb 22 2026
·
20:30
Venue
Estádio Do Dragão
(Porto)
Competition
Liga Portugal
·
23
Referee
David Rafael Oliveira Silva
Coaches
Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Recent Form
Porto
4W 1D 0L
2 GF · 0.4 GA
W
H
Rio Ave
1-0
Rio Ave
1-0
D
H
Sporting CP
1-1
Sporting CP
1-1
W
H
Rangers
3-1
Rangers
3-1
W
H
Gil Vicente
3-0
Gil Vicente
3-0
W
H
AVS
2-0
AVS
2-0
4W 1D 0L
2 GF · 0.4 GA
W
H
Rio Ave
1-0
Rio Ave
1-0
D
H
Sporting CP
1-1
Sporting CP
1-1
W
H
Rangers
3-1
Rangers
3-1
W
H
Gil Vicente
3-0
Gil Vicente
3-0
W
H
AVS
2-0
AVS
2-0
3W 1D 1L
1 GF · 0.6 GA
W
A
Nacional
1-0
Nacional
1-0
L
A
Casa Pia
1-2
Casa Pia
1-2
D
A
Viktoria Plzeň
1-1
Viktoria Plzeň
1-1
W
A
Vitória Guimarães
1-0
Vitória Guimarães
1-0
W
A
Santa Clara
1-0
Santa Clara
1-0
3W 1D 1L
1.4 GF · 0.8 GA
W
H
Rio Ave
1-0
Rio Ave
1-0
W
A
Nacional
1-0
Nacional
1-0
D
H
Sporting CP
1-1
Sporting CP
1-1
L
A
Casa Pia
1-2
Casa Pia
1-2
W
H
Rangers
3-1
Rangers
3-1
Rio Ave
0W 1D 4L
0.4 GF · 2.8 GA
L
A
Porto
0-1
Porto
0-1
L
A
Sporting Braga
0-3
Sporting Braga
0-3
L
A
Nacional
0-4
Nacional
0-4
L
A
Sporting CP
0-4
Sporting CP
0-4
D
A
Gil Vicente
2-2
Gil Vicente
2-2
1W 0D 4L
0.8 GF · 1.8 GA
L
H
Moreirense
1-2
Moreirense
1-2
L
H
Arouca
0-3
Arouca
0-3
L
H
Benfica
0-2
Benfica
0-2
W
H
Casa Pia
3-1
Casa Pia
3-1
L
H
Vitória Guimarães
0-1
Vitória Guimarães
0-1
0W 1D 4L
0.4 GF · 2.8 GA
L
A
Porto
0-1
Porto
0-1
L
A
Sporting Braga
0-3
Sporting Braga
0-3
L
A
Nacional
0-4
Nacional
0-4
L
A
Sporting CP
0-4
Sporting CP
0-4
D
A
Gil Vicente
2-2
Gil Vicente
2-2
0W 0D 5L
0.2 GF · 2.6 GA
L
A
Porto
0-1
Porto
0-1
L
H
Moreirense
1-2
Moreirense
1-2
L
A
Sporting Braga
0-3
Sporting Braga
0-3
L
H
Arouca
0-3
Arouca
0-3
L
A
Nacional
0-4
Nacional
0-4
Sidelined Players
Porto
7 out
Jakub Kiwior
injury
Martim Fernandes
injury
Samu Aghehowa
injury
Iván Marcano
injury
Luuk de Jong
injury
+2 more
Rio Ave
1 out
Brandon Aguilera
injury
Head-to-Head (Last 10)
Porto
7
70%
Draws
2
20%
Rio Ave
1
10%
Avg Goals
2.3
BTTS
30%
League Signals
Predictability
54%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+7%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.6
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
24%
BTTS
49%
Over 2.5
49%
Final Words
Porto lead the Liga Portugal table and are motivated to maintain position. Rio Ave arrive with a five-match losing streak and a rotation risk due to congestion. The data identifies Porto as the top pick with a probability around 77%.
Porto
Porto's last five matches show three wins, one draw and one defeat. They have scored nine and conceded four. They are the top pick for the fixture, with a victory probability around 77%.
Rio Ave
Rio Ave have lost five league games in a row, scoring once and conceding 14 in that span. There is a rotation risk due to three fixtures in 14 days. The league prediction trend is down.
