Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Value Assessment
Home Win
1.32
38% pred
-37.5%
Draw
5.80
22% pred
+5.1%
VALUE
Away Win
8.25
39% pred
+27.2%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.56
59%
BTTS No
2.36
35%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Away Win
@
8.25
+27.2% edge
39% probability
Expected value: +2.25 units per bet
Confidence
Medium
74%
Key Insights
European Race
Newcastle United in position 7 - competing for European qualification
Medium impactRotation Risk
Newcastle United has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactRotation Risk
PSV has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactMust Win
PSV in position 22 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation
High impactStreak Watch
Newcastle United unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) - solid defensive form
Medium impactHome Fortress
Newcastle United unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (5 wins, 3 draws) - strong home advantage
Medium impactAway Specialist
PSV exceptional away form: 6 wins in last 8 away matches (75% win rate)
Medium impactHigh Scoring
PSV involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5
Medium impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 38.3% home win vs 75.8% market consensus - lower probability, 37.5% gap
High impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 39.4% away win vs 12.1% market consensus - higher probability, 27.2% gap
High impactMatch Normality
45%
High risk match
Match Info
Kickoff
Wed, Jan 21 2026
·
20:00
Venue
St. James' Park
(Newcastle upon Tyne)
Competition
Champions League
·
League Stage
, 7
Referee
Daniel Siebert
Coaches
Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Recent Form
Newcastle United
2W 0D 3L
1.6 GF · 1.8 GA
W
H
Qarabağ
3-2
Qarabağ
3-2
L
H
Brentford
2-3
Brentford
2-3
L
H
Aston Villa
0-2
Aston Villa
0-2
W
H
PSV
3-0
PSV
3-0
L
H
Manchester City
0-2
Manchester City
0-2
2W 0D 3L
1.6 GF · 1.8 GA
W
H
Qarabağ
3-2
Qarabağ
3-2
L
H
Brentford
2-3
Brentford
2-3
L
H
Aston Villa
0-2
Aston Villa
0-2
W
H
PSV
3-0
PSV
3-0
L
H
Manchester City
0-2
Manchester City
0-2
3W 0D 2L
2.6 GF · 1.6 GA
L
A
Manchester City
1-2
Manchester City
1-2
W
A
Qarabağ
6-1
Qarabağ
6-1
W
A
Aston Villa
3-1
Aston Villa
3-1
W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2-1
Tottenham Hotspur
2-1
L
A
Manchester City
1-3
Manchester City
1-3
4W 0D 1L
3 GF · 1.4 GA
W
H
Qarabağ
3-2
Qarabağ
3-2
L
A
Manchester City
1-2
Manchester City
1-2
W
A
Qarabağ
6-1
Qarabağ
6-1
W
A
Aston Villa
3-1
Aston Villa
3-1
W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2-1
Tottenham Hotspur
2-1
PSV
3W 0D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.6 GA
L
A
FC Volendam
1-2
FC Volendam
1-2
W
A
FC Groningen
2-1
FC Groningen
2-1
L
A
Newcastle United
0-3
Newcastle United
0-3
W
A
Fortuna Sittard
2-1
Fortuna Sittard
2-1
W
A
FC Utrecht
2-1
FC Utrecht
2-1
3W 1D 1L
2.8 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
SC Heerenveen
3-1
SC Heerenveen
3-1
W
H
Feyenoord
3-0
Feyenoord
3-0
L
H
FC Bayern München
1-2
FC Bayern München
1-2
D
H
NAC Breda
2-2
NAC Breda
2-2
W
H
Excelsior
5-1
Excelsior
5-1
3W 0D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.6 GA
L
A
FC Volendam
1-2
FC Volendam
1-2
W
A
FC Groningen
2-1
FC Groningen
2-1
L
A
Newcastle United
0-3
Newcastle United
0-3
W
A
Fortuna Sittard
2-1
Fortuna Sittard
2-1
W
A
FC Utrecht
2-1
FC Utrecht
2-1
3W 0D 2L
2 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
SC Heerenveen
3-1
SC Heerenveen
3-1
L
A
FC Volendam
1-2
FC Volendam
1-2
W
A
FC Groningen
2-1
FC Groningen
2-1
W
H
Feyenoord
3-0
Feyenoord
3-0
L
H
FC Bayern München
1-2
FC Bayern München
1-2
Sidelined Players
Newcastle United
5 out
Fabian Schär
injury
Yoane Wissa
injury
Sven Botman
injury
Tino Livramento
injury
Lewis Miley
injury
PSV
8 out
Alassane Pléa
injury
Richard Ledezma
injury
Matej Kovar
injury
Armando Obispo
injury
Nick Olij
injury
+3 more
Head-to-Head (Last 3)
Newcastle United
2
67%
Draws
1
33%
PSV
0
0%
Avg Goals
2.7
BTTS
67%
League Signals
Predictability
56%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.0
HIGH
Draw Rate
20%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
57%
Final Words
Newcastle United enter this match in excellent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. Historically, Newcastle United have dominated this fixture.
