Napoli vs Fiorentina

Value Assessment

Home Win
1.98
49% pred
-1.2%
Draw
3.18
28% pred
-3.5%
Away Win
4.22
23% pred
-0.9%
BTTS Yes 1.93 38%
BTTS No 1.81 52%

Key Insights

Relegation Zone

Fiorentina

Fiorentina in position 18 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop

High impact

European Race

Napoli

Napoli in position 3 - competing for Champions League qualification

High impact

Must Win

Fiorentina

Fiorentina in position 18 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation

High impact

BTTS Tendency

Fiorentina

Fiorentina matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes

Medium impact

Match Normality

95%

Normal match expected

Match Info

Kickoff
Sat, Jan 31 2026 · 17:00
Venue
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Napoli)
Competition
Serie A · 23
Referee
Federico La Penna Federico La Penna

Coaches

Antonio Conte
Antonio Conte Napoli Napoli

In role since Jul 2024

Attack Tempo

1.7

Defensive Control

38.6%

Match Shape

26.3%

Under Antonio Conte since 2024-07-01, Napoli’s metrics over three seasons show a compact defensive baseline (0.9 goals conceded per game) paired with a measured attack (1.7 per game). Clean sheets stand at 38.6% and BTTS is 47.4%, suggesting frequent but selective involvement by opponents in scoring games. Draws at 26.3% imply stability with limited variance. Given the modest sample, these tendencies should be treated with cautious interpretation.

Paolo Vanoli
Paolo Vanoli Fiorentina Fiorentina

In role since Nov 2025

Attack Tempo

1.5

Defensive Control

26.3%

Match Shape

24.6%

Fiorentina under Paolo Vanoli shows a balanced profile: goals for 1.5 per game against 1.1, yielding a net +0.4, with BTTS in 55.3% of matches. Clean sheets occurred in 26.3% and draws in 24.6%, indicating frequent parity with pockets of scoring quality. Given the limited three-season window, results carry variance, so these tendencies should be treated with caution.

Recent Form

Napoli Napoli
2W 2D 1L
1.6 GF · 1.4 GA
D H Roma Roma 2-2
D H Como Como 1-1
W H Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1
L H Chelsea Chelsea 2-3
W H Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0
2W 2D 1L
1.6 GF · 1.4 GA
D H Roma Roma 2-2
D H Como Como 1-1
W H Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1
L H Chelsea Chelsea 2-3
W H Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0
1W 2D 2L
1.4 GF · 2 GA
L A Atalanta Atalanta 1-2
W A Genoa Genoa 3-2
L A Juventus Juventus 0-3
D A FC København FC København 1-1
D A Inter Inter 2-2
2W 2D 1L
1.8 GF · 1.6 GA
L A Atalanta Atalanta 1-2
D H Roma Roma 2-2
D H Como Como 1-1
W A Genoa Genoa 3-2
W H Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1
Fiorentina Fiorentina
3W 1D 1L
2 GF · 1.2 GA
W A Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok 3-0
W A Como Como 2-1
L A Napoli Napoli 1-2
W A Bologna Bologna 2-1
D A Lazio Lazio 2-2
1W 2D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.6 GA
D H Torino Torino 2-2
L H Como Como 1-3
L H Cagliari Cagliari 1-2
D H AC Milan AC Milan 1-1
W H Cremonese Cremonese 1-0
3W 1D 1L
2 GF · 1.2 GA
W A Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok 3-0
W A Como Como 2-1
L A Napoli Napoli 1-2
W A Bologna Bologna 2-1
D A Lazio Lazio 2-2
2W 1D 2L
1.8 GF · 1.6 GA
W A Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok 3-0
W A Como Como 2-1
D H Torino Torino 2-2
L A Napoli Napoli 1-2
L H Como Como 1-3

Sidelined Players

Napoli Napoli 4 out
Amir Rrahmani 
Amir Rrahmani 
injury
Frank Anguissa 
Frank Anguissa 
injury
Kevin De Bruyne 
Kevin De Bruyne 
injury
Giovanni Di Lorenzo 
Giovanni Di Lorenzo 
injury
Fiorentina Fiorentina 3 out
Albert Gudmundsson
Albert Gudmundsson
injury
Rolando Mandragora
Rolando Mandragora
suspended
David de Gea
David de Gea
injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Napoli
5
50%
Draws
2
20%
Fiorentina
3
30%
Avg Goals
3.4
BTTS
70%

League Signals

Predictability
53%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+5%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.7
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
27%
BTTS
54%
Over 2.5
51%

Final Words

Napoli vs. Fiorentina kicks off at 17:00 [GMT] on Saturday, January 31, at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Napoli Napoli

<p>The hosts sit third in the table with 43 points, firmly in the hunt near the top end of the standings. Fiorentina, by contrast, find themselves in 18th place with just 17 points, knowing that any positive result away from home would be a significant boost in their battle for survival.</p> <p>Napoli make their return to Serie A after crashing out of the UEFA Champions League following a 3-2 loss to Chelsea. Back in Serie A, they have drawn four of their last six matches across all competitions, a run that suggests consistency but also a slight lack of cutting edge at times.</p> <p>Even so, avoiding defeat has been a recurring theme, particularly at home, where Napoli remain a formidable force. They are unbeaten in their last 21 Serie A matches at the Maradona, underlining just how difficult it has been for visiting sides to leave Naples with points.</p> <p>That home strength is backed up by a wider league trend. Napoli have avoided defeat in 39 of their last 45 Serie A encounters overall, a record that reflects long-term reliability and explains their position near the top of the table.</p> <p>Against Fiorentina specifically, recent history also favours the Partenopei. Napoli have won 67% of the last six Serie A head-to-head meetings, regularly finding ways to impose themselves in this fixture.</p> <p>Those meetings have also tended to produce goals. Each of Napoli’s last five league matches against Fiorentina has seen over 2.5 goals scored, with the home side netting at least twice in all of the last four.</p> <p>A 4—3—3 formation with Rasmus Højlund, Elmas and Antonio Vergara in attack is expected against Fiorentina.</p>

Fiorentina Fiorentina

<p>The Purples [DWLDL] travel south in poor form and under growing pressure. They have won only three of their last 20 Serie A matches, a run that has dragged them toward the relegation places.</p> <p>Away from home, the problems are even more pronounced. Fiorentina have lost three of their last six away league games and have conceded at least one goal in each of their last eight away Serie A fixtures.</p> <p>Defensively, the numbers are concerning. Fiorentina are conceding an average of 1.55 goals per away league match, leaving them with little margin for error given their struggles in front of goal.</p> <p>Too often this season, they have found themselves chasing games after falling behind. That is a dangerous habit against Napoli, a side comfortable controlling tempo once in the lead.</p> <p>A 4-3-3 formation with Piccoli, Harrison and Jacopo Fazzini in attack is expected against Napoli.</p>