Como vs Fiorentina - Serie A Prediction & Analysis

Value Assessment

Home Win

1.67

51% pred

-9.0%

Draw

3.91

27% pred

+1.9%

Away Win

4.95

22% pred

+1.5%

BTTS Yes 1.65 37%

BTTS No 2.17 54% VALUE

Key Insights

Relegation Zone

Fiorentina in position 18 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop

High impact

European Race

Como in position 7 - competing for European qualification

Medium impact

Rotation Risk

Como has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Medium impact

BTTS Tendency

Fiorentina matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 8 of last 8 matches (100%) - favors BTTS Yes

Medium impact

Leaky Defense

Fiorentina has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Como has Nico Paz ranked #2 in league scoring (8 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 36.7% BTTS vs 60.6% market consensus - lower probability, 23.9% gap

Medium impact

Match Normality

70%

Minor irregularities detected

Match Info

Kickoff

Sat, Feb 14 2026 · 14:00

Venue

Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia (Como)

Competition

Serie A · 25

Referee

Matteo Marchetti

Coaches

Cesc Fàbregas

Como

In role since Jul 2024

Attack Tempo

1.3

Defensive Control

18.4%

Match Shape

26.3%

Como, under Cesc Fàbregas since 19 July 2024, presents a modest attacking output of 1.3 goals per game and a defense averaging 1.4 conceded per game. A BTTS rate of 60.5% and a clean sheet share of 18.4% imply open matches with limited defensive resistance. Draws reflect 26.3% of results. With only one season analyzed, there is uncertainty around these tendencies.

Paolo Vanoli

Fiorentina

In role since Nov 2025

Attack Tempo

1.5

Defensive Control

26.3%

Match Shape

24.6%

Fiorentina under Paolo Vanoli shows a balanced profile: goals for 1.5 per game against 1.1, yielding a net +0.4, with BTTS in 55.3% of matches. Clean sheets occurred in 26.3% and draws in 24.6%, indicating frequent parity with pockets of scoring quality. Given the limited three-season window, results carry variance, so these tendencies should be treated with caution.

Recent Form

Como

1W 2D 2L

1.8 GF · 1.2 GA

L H

Fiorentina 1-2

D H

Atalanta 0-0

W H Torino

Torino 6-0

L H

AC Milan 1-3

D H Bologna

Bologna 1-1

1W 2D 2L

1.8 GF · 1.2 GA

L H

Fiorentina 1-2

D H

Atalanta 0-0

W H Torino

Torino 6-0

L H

AC Milan 1-3

D H Bologna

Bologna 1-1

3W 2D 0L

2 GF · 0.6 GA

W A

Juventus 2-0

D A

AC Milan 1-1

D A Napoli

Napoli 1-1

W A

Fiorentina 3-1

W A Lazio

Lazio 3-0

1W 3D 1L

1 GF · 0.8 GA

W A

Juventus 2-0

D A

AC Milan 1-1

L H

Fiorentina 1-2

D A Napoli

Napoli 1-1

D H

Atalanta 0-0

Fiorentina

3W 1D 1L

2 GF · 1.2 GA

W A

Jagiellonia Białystok 3-0

W A Como

Como 2-1

L A Napoli

Napoli 1-2

W A Bologna

Bologna 2-1

D A Lazio

Lazio 2-2

1W 2D 2L

1.2 GF · 1.6 GA

D H Torino

Torino 2-2

L H Como

Como 1-3

L H

Cagliari 1-2

D H

AC Milan 1-1

W H

Cremonese 1-0

3W 1D 1L

2 GF · 1.2 GA

W A

Jagiellonia Białystok 3-0

W A Como

Como 2-1

L A Napoli

Napoli 1-2

W A Bologna

Bologna 2-1

D A Lazio

Lazio 2-2

2W 1D 2L

1.8 GF · 1.6 GA

W A

Jagiellonia Białystok 3-0

W A Como

Como 2-1

D H Torino

Torino 2-2

L A Napoli

Napoli 1-2

L H Como

Como 1-3

Sidelined Players

Como 3 out

Álvaro Morata

injury

Paolo Faragò

injury

Assane Diao

suspended

Fiorentina 3 out

Albert Gudmundsson

injury

Rolando Mandragora

suspended

David de Gea

injury

Head-to-Head (Last 5)

Como

3

60%

Draws

0

0%

Fiorentina

2

40%

Avg Goals

2.8

BTTS

60%

League Signals

Predictability

53%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+5%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

2.7

MEDIUM

Draw Rate

27%

BTTS

54%

Over 2.5

51%

Final Words

Como host Fiorentina in Serie A on 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC. The home side are marked as the slight favorite, with a home win probability around 51%. Fiorentina sit in the relegation zone while Como are in position around sixth and chasing European qualification; Como also face rotation risk due to a congested 14 day window.

Como

Como arrive in good form at home, with five matches on record: 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 13 and conceding 2. Head-to-head shows Como won the only meeting between the sides. Rotation risk is present due to a congested schedule, with four fixtures in 14 days.

Fiorentina

Fiorentina have five matches in the current run with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 10. They are in the relegation zone, sitting in 18th place and seeking to arrest the slide. In the lone prior meeting, Fiorentina have not beaten Como, as Como recorded the win.