Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Value Assessment
Home Win
1.12
53% pred
-35.9%
Draw
9.89
26% pred
+15.8%
VALUE
Away Win
19.64
21% pred
+15.5%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.94
42%
BTTS No
1.81
54%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Draw
@
9.89
+15.8% edge
26% probability
Expected value: +1.57 units per bet
Confidence
Medium
74%
Key Insights
Rotation Risk
Chelsea has 5 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
High impactMust Win
Pafos FC in position 29 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation
High impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 53.4% home win vs 89.3% market consensus - lower probability, 35.9% gap
High impactMatch Normality
65%
Significant concerns
Match Info
Kickoff
Wed, Jan 21 2026
·
20:00
Venue
Stamford Bridge
(London)
Competition
Champions League
·
League Stage
, 7
Referee
Erik Lambrechts
Coaches
Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Recent Form
Chelsea
3W 2D 0L
1.8 GF · 1 GA
D
H
Burnley
1-1
Burnley
1-1
D
H
Leeds United
2-2
Leeds United
2-2
W
H
West Ham United
3-2
West Ham United
3-2
W
H
Pafos FC
1-0
Pafos FC
1-0
W
H
Brentford
2-0
Brentford
2-0
3W 2D 0L
1.8 GF · 1 GA
D
H
Burnley
1-1
Burnley
1-1
D
H
Leeds United
2-2
Leeds United
2-2
W
H
West Ham United
3-2
West Ham United
3-2
W
H
Pafos FC
1-0
Pafos FC
1-0
W
H
Brentford
2-0
Brentford
2-0
4W 0D 1L
2.6 GF · 1 GA
W
A
Hull City
4-0
Hull City
4-0
W
A
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3-1
L
A
Arsenal
0-1
Arsenal
0-1
W
A
Napoli
3-2
Napoli
3-2
W
A
Crystal Palace
3-1
Crystal Palace
3-1
2W 2D 1L
2 GF · 1 GA
D
H
Burnley
1-1
Burnley
1-1
W
A
Hull City
4-0
Hull City
4-0
D
H
Leeds United
2-2
Leeds United
2-2
W
A
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3-1
L
A
Arsenal
0-1
Arsenal
0-1
Pafos FC
1W 2D 2L
0.4 GF · 0.8 GA
L
A
Chelsea
0-1
Chelsea
0-1
L
A
Juventus
0-2
Juventus
0-2
D
A
Kairat
0-0
Kairat
0-0
D
A
Olympiacos F.C.
0-0
Olympiacos F.C.
0-0
W
A
Crvena Zvezda
2-1
Crvena Zvezda
2-1
2W 2D 1L
1.8 GF · 1.8 GA
W
H
Slavia Praha
4-1
Slavia Praha
4-1
D
H
Monaco
2-2
Monaco
2-2
W
H
Villarreal
1-0
Villarreal
1-0
L
H
FC Bayern München
1-5
FC Bayern München
1-5
D
H
Crvena Zvezda
1-1
Crvena Zvezda
1-1
1W 2D 2L
0.4 GF · 0.8 GA
L
A
Chelsea
0-1
Chelsea
0-1
L
A
Juventus
0-2
Juventus
0-2
D
A
Kairat
0-0
Kairat
0-0
D
A
Olympiacos F.C.
0-0
Olympiacos F.C.
0-0
W
A
Crvena Zvezda
2-1
Crvena Zvezda
2-1
2W 1D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Slavia Praha
4-1
Slavia Praha
4-1
L
A
Chelsea
0-1
Chelsea
0-1
L
A
Juventus
0-2
Juventus
0-2
D
H
Monaco
2-2
Monaco
2-2
W
H
Villarreal
1-0
Villarreal
1-0
Sidelined Players
Chelsea
10 out
Omari Kellyman
injury
Marc Cucurella
injury
Jamie Gittens
injury
Mykhaylo Mudryk
suspended
João Félix
injury
+5 more
Pafos FC
5 out
David Goldar
injury
Derrick Luckassen
suspended
Jay Gorter
suspended
Pedrão
injury
Jajá
suspended
Head-to-Head (Last 1)
Chelsea
1
100%
Draws
0
0%
Pafos FC
0
0%
Avg Goals
1.0
BTTS
0%
League Signals
Predictability
56%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.0
HIGH
Draw Rate
20%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
57%
