Cagliari vs Lecce - Serie A Prediction & Analysis

Value Assessment

Home Win

2.36

53% pred

+10.2%

VALUE

Draw

2.84

27% pred

-8.2%

Away Win

3.52

20% pred

-7.9%

BTTS Yes 2.19 37%

BTTS No 1.65 54%

Key Insights

Must Win

Lecce in position 17 with poor recent form (7% points) - must-win situation

High impact

Match Normality

90%

Normal match expected

Match Info

Kickoff

Mon, Feb 16 2026 · 19:45

Venue

Sardegna Arena (Cagliari)

Competition

Serie A · 25

Referee

Ermanno Feliciani

Coaches

Fabio Pisacane

Cagliari

In role since Jun 2025

Attack Tempo

1.0

Defensive Control

13.2%

Match Shape

28.9%

Under Fabio Pisacane since 2025-06-11, Cagliari's profile over three seasons shows an average of 1 goal scored and 1.7 conceded per match, a high BTTS rate (58.8%) and low clean sheets (13.2%), with draws at 28.9%. The data suggests an open approach with modest attack and defensive vulnerability, producing frequent shared points. Given the three-season sample, these tendencies carry notable variance and should be treated cautiously.

Eusebio Di Francesco

Lecce

In role since Jun 2025

Attack Tempo

0.8

Defensive Control

19.3%

Match Shape

31.6%

Since 2025-06-26, Lecce under Eusebio Di Francesco show a low-scoring profile: 0.8 goals for per game against 1.4, with a 19.3% clean sheet rate. BTTS occurs in 45.6% of matches, and draws reach 31.6%, suggesting a defensively cautious setup with limited goal threat and openings in both boxes. With only three seasons analyzed, sample size is small, so these signals carry notable variance.

Recent Form

Cagliari

2W 1D 2L

1 GF · 0.6 GA

D H Lazio

Lazio 0-0

L H Lecce

Lecce 0-2

W H

Hellas Verona 4-0

W H

Juventus 1-0

L H

AC Milan 0-1

2W 1D 2L

1 GF · 0.6 GA

D H Lazio

Lazio 0-0

L H Lecce

Lecce 0-2

W H

Hellas Verona 4-0

W H

Juventus 1-0

L H

AC Milan 0-1

2W 1D 2L

1.2 GF · 1.8 GA

L A Roma

Roma 0-2

W A

Fiorentina 2-1

L A Genoa

Genoa 0-3

D A

Cremonese 2-2

W A Torino

Torino 2-1

2W 1D 2L

1.2 GF · 1 GA

D H Lazio

Lazio 0-0

L H Lecce

Lecce 0-2

L A Roma

Roma 0-2

W H

Hellas Verona 4-0

W A

Fiorentina 2-1

Lecce

1W 1D 3L

0.6 GF · 0.8 GA

W A

Cagliari 2-0

L A Torino

Torino 0-1

L A

AC Milan 0-1

L A Inter

Inter 0-1

D A

Juventus 1-1

1W 1D 3L

0.6 GF · 1.4 GA

L H Inter

Inter 0-2

W H Udinese

Udinese 2-1

D H Lazio

Lazio 0-0

L H Parma

Parma 1-2

L H Roma

Roma 0-2

1W 1D 3L

0.6 GF · 0.8 GA

W A

Cagliari 2-0

L A Torino

Torino 0-1

L A

AC Milan 0-1

L A Inter

Inter 0-1

D A

Juventus 1-1

2W 1D 2L

0.8 GF · 0.8 GA

L H Inter

Inter 0-2

W A

Cagliari 2-0

W H Udinese

Udinese 2-1

L A Torino

Torino 0-1

D H Lazio

Lazio 0-0

Sidelined Players

Cagliari 5 out

Andrea Belotti

injury

Zito Luvumbo

injury

Alessandro Deiola

injury

Gianluca Gaetano

injury

Mattia Felici

injury

Lecce 1 out

Francesco Camarda

injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Cagliari

3

30%

Draws

4

40%

Lecce

3

30%

Avg Goals

2.4

BTTS

60%

League Signals

Predictability

53%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+5%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

2.7

MEDIUM

Draw Rate

27%

BTTS

54%

Over 2.5

51%

Final Words

Cagliari host Lecce in Serie A. Kickoff is 19:45 UTC on 16 February 2026 and Cagliari are favored with about a 52.5% win probability. Rotation risk due to a congested schedule and Lecce's must-win position from 17th place frame the context.

Cagliari

Cagliari arrive with a five-match form: L-W-W-W-L. They have 3 wins and 2 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 6, for 1.8 points per match. There is no head-to-head record against Lecce in the dataset.

Lecce

Lecce's five-match run is W-L-D-L-L. They have 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, scoring 2 and conceding 4, at 0.8 points per match. Lecce sit 17th and face a must-win situation.