Benfica vs Real Madrid - Serie A Prediction & Analysis

Value Assessment

Home Win

4.19

40% pred

+15.8%

VALUE

Draw

4.12

25% pred

+0.2%

Away Win

1.73

36% pred

-22.0%

BTTS Yes 1.49 48%

BTTS No 2.55 40%

Key Insights

Title Race

Real Madrid in position 3, 6 points behind leader - competing for title

Medium impact

European Race

Real Madrid in position 3 - competing for European qualification

Medium impact

Rotation Risk

Benfica has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Medium impact

Away Specialist

Real Madrid exceptional away form: 5 wins in last 8 away matches (62% win rate)

Medium impact

Defensive Fortress

Benfica has excellent defensive record: 5 clean sheets in last 8 matches (62%) - favors Under/BTTS No

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Real Madrid has Kylian Mbappé ranked #1 in league scoring (11 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 35.8% away win vs 57.8% market consensus - lower probability, 22.0% gap

Medium impact

Match Normality

70%

Minor irregularities detected

Match Info

Kickoff

Wed, Jan 28 2026 · 20:00

Venue

Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (Lisboa)

Competition

Champions League · League Stage , 8

Referee

Davide Massa

Coaches

José Mario Felix dos Santos Mourinho

Benfica

In role since Sep 2025

Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.

Álvaro Arbeloa Coca

Real Madrid

In role since Jan 2026

Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.

Recent Form

Benfica

4W 0D 1L

2.6 GF · 0.8 GA

W H AVS

AVS 3-0

L H

Real Madrid 0-1

W H Alverca

Alverca 2-1

W H

Real Madrid 4-2

W H

Estrela Amadora 4-0

4W 0D 1L

2.6 GF · 0.8 GA

W H AVS

AVS 3-0

L H

Real Madrid 0-1

W H Alverca

Alverca 2-1

W H

Real Madrid 4-2

W H

Estrela Amadora 4-0

2W 2D 1L

1.2 GF · 1 GA

W A

Santa Clara 2-1

D A Tondela

Tondela 0-0

L A

Juventus 0-2

W A Rio Ave

Rio Ave 2-0

D A

Sporting Braga 2-2

3W 1D 1L

1.4 GF · 0.6 GA

W H AVS

AVS 3-0

L H

Real Madrid 0-1

W A

Santa Clara 2-1

W H Alverca

Alverca 2-1

D A Tondela

Tondela 0-0

Real Madrid

3W 0D 2L

1.6 GF · 1.2 GA

L A Osasuna

Osasuna 1-2

W A Benfica

Benfica 1-0

W A

Valencia 2-0

L A Benfica

Benfica 2-4

W A

Villarreal 2-0

5W 0D 0L

3.8 GF · 0.8 GA

W H

Real Sociedad 4-1

W H

Rayo Vallecano 2-1

W H Monaco

Monaco 6-1

W H Levante

Levante 2-0

W H

Real Betis 5-1

3W 0D 2L

1.6 GF · 1.2 GA

L A Osasuna

Osasuna 1-2

W A Benfica

Benfica 1-0

W A

Valencia 2-0

L A Benfica

Benfica 2-4

W A

Villarreal 2-0

4W 0D 1L

2 GF · 0.8 GA

L A Osasuna

Osasuna 1-2

W A Benfica

Benfica 1-0

W H

Real Sociedad 4-1

W A

Valencia 2-0

W H

Rayo Vallecano 2-1

Sidelined Players

Benfica 2 out

João Veloso

injury

Gianluca Prestianni

suspended

Real Madrid 5 out

Jude Bellingham

injury

Dani Ceballos

injury

Éder Militão

injury

Rodrygo

injury

Dean Huijsen

injury

Head-to-Head (Last 2)

Benfica

1

50%

Draws

0

0%

Real Madrid

1

50%

Avg Goals

3.5

BTTS

50%

League Signals

Predictability

56%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+9%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

3.0

HIGH

Draw Rate

20%

BTTS

51%

Over 2.5

57%

Final Words

Real Madrid arrive in strong form with 4 wins from 5 games.