Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Value Assessment
Home Win
1.30
50% pred
-26.7%
Draw
5.79
24% pred
+6.4%
VALUE
Away Win
8.52
26% pred
+14.4%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.10
49%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Away Win
@
8.52
+14.4% edge
26% probability
Expected value: +1.23 units per bet
Confidence
Low
58%
Key Insights
Title Race
Aston Villa leading the table - high motivation to maintain position
High impactMust Win
Salzburg in position 31 with poor recent form (27% points) - must-win situation
High impactBTTS Tendency
Salzburg matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes
Medium impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 50.2% home win vs 76.9% market consensus - lower probability, 26.7% gap
High impactMatch Normality
75%
Minor irregularities detected
Match Info
Kickoff
Thu, Jan 29 2026
·
20:00
Venue
Villa Park
(Birmingham)
Competition
Europa League
·
League Stage
, 8
Referee
Rohit Saggi
Coaches
Tactical tendency badges are currently unavailable for this league context.
Recent Form
Aston Villa
2W 1D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.4 GA
D
H
Leeds United
1-1
Leeds United
1-1
L
H
Newcastle United
1-3
Newcastle United
1-3
W
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0
L
H
Brentford
0-1
Brentford
0-1
W
H
Salzburg
3-2
Salzburg
3-2
2W 1D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.4 GA
D
H
Leeds United
1-1
Leeds United
1-1
L
H
Newcastle United
1-3
Newcastle United
1-3
W
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0
L
H
Brentford
0-1
Brentford
0-1
W
H
Salzburg
3-2
Salzburg
3-2
3W 2D 0L
1.2 GF · 0.4 GA
D
A
AFC Bournemouth
1-1
AFC Bournemouth
1-1
W
A
Newcastle United
2-0
Newcastle United
2-0
W
A
Fenerbahçe
1-0
Fenerbahçe
1-0
W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2-1
Tottenham Hotspur
2-1
D
A
Crystal Palace
0-0
Crystal Palace
0-0
1W 2D 2L
0.8 GF · 1.2 GA
D
H
Leeds United
1-1
Leeds United
1-1
L
H
Newcastle United
1-3
Newcastle United
1-3
W
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0
D
A
AFC Bournemouth
1-1
AFC Bournemouth
1-1
L
H
Brentford
0-1
Brentford
0-1
Salzburg
2W 1D 2L
2 GF · 1.2 GA
W
A
LASK Linz
5-1
LASK Linz
5-1
D
A
Grazer AK
1-1
Grazer AK
1-1
L
A
Aston Villa
2-3
Aston Villa
2-3
L
A
SC Freiburg
0-1
SC Freiburg
0-1
W
A
Blau-Weiß Linz
2-0
Blau-Weiß Linz
2-0
3W 0D 2L
1.8 GF · 1.4 GA
L
H
Austria Wien
0-2
Austria Wien
0-2
W
H
Basel
3-1
Basel
3-1
W
H
Wolfsberger AC
2-1
Wolfsberger AC
2-1
L
H
WSG Tirol
2-3
WSG Tirol
2-3
W
H
Go Ahead Eagles
2-0
Go Ahead Eagles
2-0
2W 1D 2L
2 GF · 1.2 GA
W
A
LASK Linz
5-1
LASK Linz
5-1
D
A
Grazer AK
1-1
Grazer AK
1-1
L
A
Aston Villa
2-3
Aston Villa
2-3
L
A
SC Freiburg
0-1
SC Freiburg
0-1
W
A
Blau-Weiß Linz
2-0
Blau-Weiß Linz
2-0
2W 1D 2L
2.2 GF · 1.6 GA
W
A
LASK Linz
5-1
LASK Linz
5-1
D
A
Grazer AK
1-1
Grazer AK
1-1
L
H
Austria Wien
0-2
Austria Wien
0-2
L
A
Aston Villa
2-3
Aston Villa
2-3
W
H
Basel
3-1
Basel
3-1
Sidelined Players
Aston Villa
5 out
Youri Tielemans
injury
John McGinn
injury
Harvey Elliott
injury
Alysson
injury
Boubacar Kamara
injury
Salzburg
7 out
Takumu Kawamura
injury
John Mellberg
injury
Leandro Morgalla
injury
Jannik Schuster
injury
Daouda Guindo
injury
+2 more
Head-to-Head (Last 1)
Aston Villa
1
100%
Draws
0
0%
Salzburg
0
0%
Avg Goals
5.0
BTTS
100%
League Signals
Predictability
55%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+12%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.9
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
21%
BTTS
53%
Over 2.5
56%
Final Words
Aston Villa have struggled recently, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches.
