AC Milan vs Parma

Value Assessment

Home Win
1.33
68% pred
-7.6%
Draw
4.94
22% pred
+1.5%
Away Win
9.53
11% pred
+0.2%
BTTS Yes 2.19 41%
BTTS No 1.65 59%

Key Insights

Top Scorer

AC Milan

AC Milan has Christian Pulisic ranked #4 in league scoring (8 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Match Normality

90%

Normal match expected

Match Info

Kickoff
Sun, Feb 22 2026 · 17:00
Venue
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milano)
Competition
Serie A · 26
Referee
Marco Piccinini Marco Piccinini

Coaches

Massimiliano Allegri
Massimiliano Allegri AC Milan AC Milan

In role since Jul 2025

Attack Tempo

1.8

Defensive Control

33.3%

Match Shape

24.6%

AC Milan, in Serie A, under Massimiliano Allegri since 2025-07-01, shows a modest offensive yield (1.8 goals for per match) with a stronger defensive line (1.2 against). The BTTS signal is high (59.7% of games), while clean sheets occur in 33.3% and draws in 24.6% of matches. Together, these metrics suggest a tendency toward open contests with reasonable defensive concentration. Caution warranted: three seasons is a limited sample, so variance may blur longer-term patterns.

Carlos Antón Cuesta
Carlos Antón Cuesta Parma Parma

In role since Jul 2025

Attack Tempo

1.2

Defensive Control

15.8%

Match Shape

28.9%

Parma, under manager Carlos Antón Cuesta since 2025-07-01, shows an open profile across three seasons: 1.2 goals for per match vs. 1.7 against; BTTS 65.8%; clean sheets 15.8%; draws 28.9%. The pattern suggests frequent goals on both sides and limited defensive solidity, with high variance in results. With only three seasons, these signals carry uncertainty and should be treated cautiously.

Recent Form

AC Milan AC Milan
2W 2D 1L
1.2 GF · 0.6 GA
L H Parma Parma 0-1
D H Como Como 1-1
W H Lecce Lecce 1-0
D H Genoa Genoa 1-1
W H Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 3-0
2W 2D 1L
1.2 GF · 0.6 GA
L H Parma Parma 0-1
D H Como Como 1-1
W H Lecce Lecce 1-0
D H Genoa Genoa 1-1
W H Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 3-0
3W 2D 0L
2 GF · 0.8 GA
W A Pisa Pisa 2-1
W A Bologna Bologna 3-0
D A Roma Roma 1-1
W A Como Como 3-1
D A Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1
2W 2D 1L
1.4 GF · 0.8 GA
L H Parma Parma 0-1
D H Como Como 1-1
W A Pisa Pisa 2-1
W A Bologna Bologna 3-0
D A Roma Roma 1-1
Parma Parma
3W 1D 1L
0.8 GF · 1 GA
W A AC Milan AC Milan 1-0
W A Bologna Bologna 1-0
L A Atalanta Atalanta 0-4
D A Napoli Napoli 0-0
W A Lecce Lecce 2-1
2W 1D 2L
0.8 GF · 1.4 GA
W H Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 2-1
L H Juventus Juventus 1-4
D H Genoa Genoa 0-0
L H Inter Inter 0-2
W H Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0
3W 1D 1L
0.8 GF · 1 GA
W A AC Milan AC Milan 1-0
W A Bologna Bologna 1-0
L A Atalanta Atalanta 0-4
D A Napoli Napoli 0-0
W A Lecce Lecce 2-1
3W 0D 2L
1 GF · 1.8 GA
W A AC Milan AC Milan 1-0
W H Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 2-1
W A Bologna Bologna 1-0
L H Juventus Juventus 1-4
L A Atalanta Atalanta 0-4

Sidelined Players

AC Milan AC Milan 3 out
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez
injury
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw
injury
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović
injury
Parma Parma 5 out
Lautaro Valenti
Lautaro Valenti
injury
Pontus Almqvist
Pontus Almqvist
injury
Vicente Guaita
Vicente Guaita
injury
Zion Suzuki
Zion Suzuki
injury
Abdoulaye Ndiaye
Abdoulaye Ndiaye
injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

AC Milan
5
50%
Draws
3
30%
Parma
2
20%
Avg Goals
3.1
BTTS
80%

League Signals

Predictability
53%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+5%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.7
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
27%
BTTS
54%
Over 2.5
51%

Final Words

AC Milan host Parma in Serie A on 22 February 2026. Milan sit in second place, 10 points behind the leader, and remain in title and Champions League contention. The insights flag rotation risk due to a congested schedule and note home-fortress strength and a BTTS tendency; head-to-head data is not available in this dataset.
AC Milan AC Milan

AC Milan's home form over the last five matches is D-W-W-D-W. They have 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 3. The data flags a home fortress profile and rotation risk due to the crowded schedule.

Parma Parma

Parma's away form over five matches is W-W-L-L-D. They have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 4 goals for and 9 against, averaging 1.4 points per match.