AC Milan vs Como - Serie A Prediction & Analysis

Value Assessment

Home Win

2.48

54% pred

+13.9%

VALUE

Draw

2.99

25% pred

-8.1%

Away Win

3.11

21% pred

-11.6%

BTTS Yes 1.92 53%

BTTS No 1.85 47%

Key Insights

Title Race

AC Milan in position 2, 7 points behind leader - competing for title

Medium impact

European Race

Como in position 6 - competing for Conference League qualification

High impact

Streak Watch

AC Milan unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) - solid defensive form

Medium impact

Home Fortress

AC Milan unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (4 wins, 4 draws) - strong home advantage

Medium impact

BTTS Tendency

AC Milan matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes

Medium impact

Top Scorer

AC Milan has Christian Pulisic ranked #4 in league scoring (8 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Como has Nico Paz ranked #2 in league scoring (9 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Match Normality

80%

Minor irregularities detected

Match Info

Kickoff

Wed, Feb 18 2026 · 19:45

Venue

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milano)

Competition

Serie A · 24

Referee

Maurizio Mariani

Coaches

Massimiliano Allegri

AC Milan

In role since Jul 2025

Attack Tempo

1.8

Defensive Control

33.3%

Match Shape

24.6%

AC Milan, in Serie A, under Massimiliano Allegri since 2025-07-01, shows a modest offensive yield (1.8 goals for per match) with a stronger defensive line (1.2 against). The BTTS signal is high (59.7% of games), while clean sheets occur in 33.3% and draws in 24.6% of matches. Together, these metrics suggest a tendency toward open contests with reasonable defensive concentration. Caution warranted: three seasons is a limited sample, so variance may blur longer-term patterns.

Cesc Fàbregas

Como

In role since Jul 2024

Attack Tempo

1.3

Defensive Control

18.4%

Match Shape

26.3%

Como, under Cesc Fàbregas since 19 July 2024, presents a modest attacking output of 1.3 goals per game and a defense averaging 1.4 conceded per game. A BTTS rate of 60.5% and a clean sheet share of 18.4% imply open matches with limited defensive resistance. Draws reflect 26.3% of results. With only one season analyzed, there is uncertainty around these tendencies.

Recent Form

AC Milan

2W 2D 1L

1.2 GF · 0.6 GA

L H Parma

Parma 0-1

D H Como

Como 1-1

W H Lecce

Lecce 1-0

D H Genoa

Genoa 1-1

W H

Hellas Verona 3-0

2W 2D 1L

1.2 GF · 0.6 GA

L H Parma

Parma 0-1

D H Como

Como 1-1

W H Lecce

Lecce 1-0

D H Genoa

Genoa 1-1

W H

Hellas Verona 3-0

3W 2D 0L

2 GF · 0.8 GA

W A Pisa

Pisa 2-1

W A Bologna

Bologna 3-0

D A Roma

Roma 1-1

W A Como

Como 3-1

D A

Fiorentina 1-1

2W 2D 1L

1.4 GF · 0.8 GA

L H Parma

Parma 0-1

D H Como

Como 1-1

W A Pisa

Pisa 2-1

W A Bologna

Bologna 3-0

D A Roma

Roma 1-1

Como

3W 2D 0L

2 GF · 0.6 GA

W A

Juventus 2-0

D A

AC Milan 1-1

D A Napoli

Napoli 1-1

W A

Fiorentina 3-1

W A Lazio

Lazio 3-0

1W 2D 2L

1.8 GF · 1.2 GA

L H

Fiorentina 1-2

D H

Atalanta 0-0

W H Torino

Torino 6-0

L H

AC Milan 1-3

D H Bologna

Bologna 1-1

3W 2D 0L

2 GF · 0.6 GA

W A

Juventus 2-0

D A

AC Milan 1-1

D A Napoli

Napoli 1-1

W A

Fiorentina 3-1

W A Lazio

Lazio 3-0

1W 3D 1L

1 GF · 0.8 GA

W A

Juventus 2-0

D A

AC Milan 1-1

L H

Fiorentina 1-2

D A Napoli

Napoli 1-1

D H

Atalanta 0-0

Sidelined Players

AC Milan 3 out

Santiago Gimenez

injury

Malick Thiaw

injury

Strahinja Pavlović

injury

Como 3 out

Álvaro Morata

injury

Paolo Faragò

injury

Assane Diao

suspended

Head-to-Head (Last 4)

AC Milan

3

75%

Draws

1

25%

Como

0

0%

Avg Goals

3.0

BTTS

100%

League Signals

Predictability

53%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+5%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

2.7

MEDIUM

Draw Rate

27%

BTTS

54%

Over 2.5

51%

Final Words

AC Milan host Como in Serie A on 2026-02-18 19:45 UTC. Milan's home form over the last five matches is W-W-D-W-W, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses. Como sit in position 7, competing for European qualification.

AC Milan

AC Milan host Como in Serie A. Milan's home form over the last five matches is W-W-D-W-W, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses; goals for 10, against 3. In the head-to-head, Milan won the single prior meeting.

Como

Como travel to Milan in Serie A. Como's away form over the last five matches is L-D-D-W-W, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss; goals for 11, against 4. The only previous meeting was won by the home side.