Serie A Predictions

Italy's Top League, Understood

Statistical analysis and predictions for Serie A. Tactical, methodical, transparent.

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27

Sunday, 1 March 2026

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27 fixtures with statistical analysis

The Shape of Serie A

Serie A moves at its own pace. Matches are measured, shaped by structure and intention rather than urgency. Control matters. Space is negotiated carefully. The game is rarely rushed — and neither are the numbers that describe it.

This rhythm produces patterns that differ from much of European football. Draws are more common, goal margins narrower, and defensive balance remains influential well into the second half. Markets sometimes approach Serie A with assumptions formed elsewhere, where speed and volume dominate. In Italy, those assumptions can mislead.

For those willing to look closely, Serie A rewards patience. The value often lies not in chaos, but in predictability — in understanding how matches are allowed to breathe, settle, and resolve themselves.

Match Intelligence, Serie A Style

What matters most in this league: structure, margins, and discipline. These cues help fans and bettors read a fixture beyond a generic form table.

Tempo & Rhythm

Draws sit around 27.1% and goals per match hover near 2.7. Serie A often rewards patience, not chaos.

Margins & Clean Sheets

Clean sheets land at 6.4% and failed-to-score matches at 6.3%. Expect tight scorelines and long phases of control.

Discipline Profile

Cards average 4.5 yellows + 0.1 reds per match. Ref style and rivalry context can swing totals.

How to Read a Serie A Fixture

Start with game state tendencies. Serie A teams protect leads and accept stalemates at a higher rate than most leagues, which keeps match totals and margins narrow.

Then watch the control dynamic. Home sides often dictate tempo, but away wins still land around 33.8%. The key is whether an away side can force the match into transition.

Finally, track timing. Goals come in bursts rather than waves — and late phases often decide outcomes. Patience beats impulse.

Serie A Identity

How this league behaves. Statistical markers from past 5 seasons.

Home Win

39.1%

Home advantage matters

Draw

27.1%

Tactical stalemates

Away Win

33.8%

Against the odds

Over 2.5

51%

High-scoring affairs

Goals Per Match

2.7

Attacking patterns emerging

BTTS

54.2%

Both teams score

Clean Sheets

6.4%

Defensive mastery

Scoring Minutes

0-15'

13%

15-30'

14%

30-45'

17%

45-60'

16.6%

60-75'

16.8%

75-90'

22.6%

Cards

4.5

+0.1 red

Predictability

53.2%

Pattern confidence

Blanks

6.3%

Failed to score

Corners

9.5

Per match

Bettor's Checklist Before Kickoff

Who controls territory? Look for midfield structure and fullback discipline.

Is the under respected? Totals often skew low in balanced matchups.

Watch rest and rotation. Italian schedules punish short turnarounds.

Referee profile matters. Cards markets shift more than goal totals.

Late-game behavior: teams protect one-goal leads with structure, not risk.

Beware “brand” bias. Big names still grind out narrow wins.

Top Goalscorers

Leading scorers this season

Lautaro Martínez

Centre Forward

Inter

Goals 14 Rating 7.7

Nico Paz

Attacking Midfield

Como

Goals 9 Rating 7.6

Kenan Yıldız

Left Wing

Juventus

Goals 8 Rating 7.3

Serie A Standings

Current league table

POS	TEAM	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	INT Inter	26	21	1	4	62	21	+41	64
2	MIL AC Milan	26	15	9	2	41	20	+21	54
3	NAP Napoli	26	15	5	6	39	27	+12	50
4	ROM Roma	26	16	2	8	34	16	+18	50
5	JUV Juventus	26	13	7	6	43	25	+18	46
6	COM Como	26	12	9	5	41	19	+22	45
7	ATA Atalanta	26	12	9	5	36	22	+14	45
8	SAS Sassuolo	26	10	5	11	32	35	-3	35
9	LAZ Lazio	26	8	10	8	26	25	+1	34
10	BOL Bologna	25	9	6	10	34	32	+2	33
11	UDI Udinese	25	9	5	11	28	38	-10	32
12	PRM Parma	26	8	8	10	19	31	-12	32
13	CAG Cagliari	26	7	8	11	28	35	-7	29
14	GEN Genoa	26	6	9	11	32	37	-5	27
15	TOR Torino	26	7	6	13	25	47	-22	27
16	USC Cremonese	26	5	9	12	21	36	-15	24
17	LEC Lecce	26	6	6	14	17	33	-16	24
18	FIO Fiorentina	25	4	9	12	29	39	-10	21
19	PIS Pisa	25	1	12	12	20	42	-22	15
20	VER Hellas Verona	26	2	9	15	19	46	-27	15

UEFA Champions League

UEFA Europa League

UEFA Conference League Qualifiers

Relegation